Four Days That Shifted the Balance: Dismissal, Assassination, Crash

On February 4, Putin dismissed Sergei Ivanov from his position as presidential special representative. On February 5, the second round of trilateral negotiations in the UAE concluded. On February 6, GRU First Deputy Chief Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseev was shot dead on the stairwell of the 24th floor of a building on Volokolamsk Highway. On February 7, on a bypass road near Rublevo Highway, the brakes failed in the car of Major General Alexander Volosov, former deputy to Shoigu.

Four days. Four events. Each could have a perfectly mundane explanation when viewed separately. Together they form a pattern that leaves no room for coincidence theory.

Ivanov: The Quiet Exit of a Player Who Knew Everyone

Sergei Ivanov is not just another retiree. This is a man who worked with Putin since the 1970s in the KGB. Defense Minister from 2001 to 2007. First Deputy Prime Minister. Head of the Presidential Administration from 2011 to 2016. Permanent member of the Security Council. Chairman of the RDIF supervisory board since January 2017—the fund whose CEO Kirill Dmitriev is sitting at the negotiating table in Abu Dhabi right now.

The chronology of Ivanov's career maneuvers around RDIF deserves separate attention. In 2012, he joined the fund's supervisory board. In April 2016, several months before the US presidential election, he left it. In August 2016, he resigned as head of the Presidential Administration. And in January 2017, even before Trump's inauguration, Putin appointed him chairman of the RDIF supervisory board for five years. The same fund whose supervisory board was previously headed by Alexei Ulyukaev, arrested six days after Trump's 2016 election victory.

RDIF is not an investment company. It is a tool for foreign policy operations through money. A channel for conducting negotiations that cannot involve the Foreign Ministry. That's why Dmitriev flies to Abu Dhabi with Kostyukov's delegation. That's why the fund's supervisory board has been classified since 2022. And that's why the dismissal of this board's chairman two days before the assassination attempt on the GRU deputy chief is no coincidence.

Peskov's wording—"at his own request"—in Kremlin semantics is an antonym of reality. Serdyukov was dismissed this way. Ivanov himself was dismissed as head of the Presidential Administration in 2016 this way. "Own request" in the Kremlin is a form in which they package a decision made without the participation of the person it concerns.

Ivanov knew everyone. As former deputy director of the FSB, he knew the intelligence services' kitchen. As defense minister—the GRU and its operations. As chairman of the RDIF supervisory board—the financial channels through which money flowed for foreign operations. As a permanent member of the Security Council—the current strategy. A person with such a volume of knowledge doesn't resign. They are moved aside so they won't interfere with what happens next.

Alekseev: A Knot Untied with Bullets

Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseev—GRU First Deputy Chief since 2011. Hero of Russia. Coordinator of operations in Syria. The man who created Wagner and negotiated with Prigozhin during the June 2023 mutiny. In the famous video from Rostov, it was Alekseev who waved his hand and said: "Take them!"—when Prigozhin demanded the handover of Shoigu and Gerasimov.

After the mutiny, Alekseev was suspected of complicity, like General Surovikin. Surovikin was removed. Alekseev remained in his position. But the tension persisted. In 2025, he was offered to head the General Staff Academy—an honorable retirement. He refused.

The assassination attempt occurred the day after the second round of negotiations in Abu Dhabi concluded. The delegation at these negotiations was led by Alekseev's direct superior—Admiral Igor Kostyukov. Alekseev was his deputy and, according to some reports, was part of the delegation at the first round of negotiations.

The killer knew the exact place and time. He entered the building with his own key during a change of guard. Cameras didn't capture his face. He shot professionally—in the chest and abdomen. He left without hindrance. According to Kommersant and Mash, suspects were detained in Dubai—the same Dubai where Alekseev's closest friend Musa Keligov, former vice president of Lukoil-International, laundered money.

Lavrov immediately blamed Ukraine. But the first rule of the Russian Foreign Ministry remains unchanged: accuse the enemy of what you want to do yourself. The Washington Post, citing Western intelligence services, reported that Ukraine's involvement is being questioned. The detention of suspects in Dubai, not Ukraine, reinforces this assessment.

Volosov: Brakes Failed on Time

The day after the assassination attempt on Alekseev, on a bypass road through the village of Kalchuga near Rublevo Highway, the brakes failed in Alexander Volosov's car. A premium CHANGAN UNI-K crossover with privileged AMO series plates crashed into the car ahead. Only the snowy road and low speed prevented a tragedy.

Volosov is a major general, one of Shoigu's closest associates from the Ministry of Emergency Situations. Deputy minister since 2008. After Shoigu's transfer to the Ministry of Defense, he headed Spetsstroy of Russia—a structure that built the Vostochny Cosmodrome, military facilities in the Kurils, and dozens of other defense projects. A structure in which two of Volosov's deputies were arrested for billion-ruble embezzlement. A structure through which, according to the investigation, money flowed in a chain: Spetsstroy—Ministry of Defense construction department—GUOV—Timur Ivanov—Shoigu.

Volosov was a key link in this chain. His deputy Zagorulko made a deal with the investigation and gave testimony against Volosov. Timur Ivanov—deputy defense minister—was arrested in April 2024. Shoigu was removed from his position in May 2024. But Volosov remained untouchable.

Until yesterday.

Common Denominator: Shoigu's Team

What unites these three events? All three are elements of the system built around the Ministry of Defense during Shoigu's time.

Sergei Ivanov as defense minister (2001–2007) laid the foundations of the infrastructure that Shoigu later used. As chairman of the RDIF supervisory board, he controlled the financial channels through which the GRU conducted foreign operations. As a permanent member of the Security Council, he knew the current state of affairs.

Alekseev was the operational core of the GRU. He created Wagner, coordinated Syria, held the threads of special operations management. After Prigozhin's mutiny, he became living proof that the conflict between the GRU and FSB was not resolved but merely frozen.

Volosov is the financial-infrastructural link. The man who knew where the Ministry of Defense money went under Shoigu. The man against whom his own deputy gave testimony. The man who has not yet faced trial.

Hypothesis: Cleanup Before Exit from War

The Kremlin is entering the phase of preparing to end the war. The negotiations in Abu Dhabi are not decoration. Kostyukov and Dmitriev sit there on the Russian side, Witkoff and Kushner on the American. They are discussing the territorial question, ceasefire mechanism, prisoner exchange. The first exchange of 314 POWs has already taken place.

To exit the war on terms acceptable to the Kremlin requires cleaning out those who could prevent this. Three categories of people:

Those who know too much about wartime financial schemes and could become toxic in case of a course change. Ivanov. He is withdrawn quietly, "at his own request," in advance.

Those who could restart the escalation flywheel. Alekseev. The man who created Wagner, coordinated autonomous operations, and refused to go into honorable retirement. He is eliminated by force, in Moscow, on a stairwell.

Those who know the Ministry of Defense's financial kitchen and could become a problem during a post-conflict period audit. Volosov. He is warned. The brakes failed on a small road, in the snow. Not on Rublevo. Not at high speed. Message delivered.

Context: Belousov's Technocrats Redistribute Flows

Back in March 2025, Putin signed a decree on changes to the RDIF supervisory board: Deputy Prime Minister Novak replaced Belousov (who by then had already become defense minister) and former VEB head Vladimir Dmitriev. The redistribution of flows went along Belousov's technocratic line. The same Belousov who replaced Shoigu as defense minister now controls both combat operations and finances.

Ivanov at the head of the RDIF supervisory board was a remnant of the old configuration. Alekseev in the GRU—a remnant of operational autonomy that is no longer needed. Volosov—a remnant of Shoigu's corruption vertical.

All three are being removed within four days. Each in their own way, according to the level of threat: dismissal, bullets, "faulty brakes."

What's Next

If these events are indeed connected, the next targets will be other figures from Shoigu's circle and the old GRU. Those who hold compromising material on wartime financial schemes. Those who maintain operational contacts with networks created during the time of autonomous operations.

The negotiations in Abu Dhabi will continue. The next round, according to Axios, may take place as early as next week. For the Kremlin to exit the war as a "winner," it needs to get rid of everyone who can tell how this war was actually conducted. And how much was earned from it.

Wars end the same way they begin. Not with strategy, but with internal killings. A bloodied general on the 24th floor. A crumpled crossover on a bypass road. A quiet decree "at his own request."

Three formats of one decision: the old system is being liquidated. Not from outside. From within.