8 March, 08:14
Donald Trump has once again questioned the Mutual Defense Treaty between the U.S. and Japan, demonstrating not only a lack of understanding of its logic but also a general misunderstanding of America's long-term geopolitical strategy.
Trump and the Destruction of U.S. Strategic Positions
Donald Trump approach to international politics resembles a business mindset focused on cost-cutting and profit maximization. However, in a global context, this strategy fails—it only weakens the U.S.'s position in the world and threatens its status as a leader and guarantor of security for the democratic world.
🔹 What Did Trump Say?
At a White House press conference, commenting on the treaty with Japan, Trump stated: 📌 "We have an interesting agreement: we have to protect them, but they don't have to protect us. Who signs these deals?"
📌 "If NATO members don’t spend 2% of their GDP on defense, I’m not going to protect them."
These statements not only contradict the U.S.'s international commitments but also jeopardize regional stability.
🔹 Why Are U.S. Troops in Japan and Germany?
Trump fails to grasp that the U.S. military presence in these countries is not merely a "service" but a strategic decision made after World War II.
✅ Japan and Germany were U.S. enemies in World War II. That’s why the Allies strictly limited their military potential to prevent new conflicts.
✅ The U.S.-Japan Mutual Defense Treaty (1960) guarantees Japan’s security in exchange for hosting strategic American military bases in the Pacific region.
✅ Ukraine’s disarmament in the 1990s followed a similar logic: the U.S. pushed Kyiv to give up its nuclear arsenal, officially citing non-proliferation concerns, but in reality, ensuring that Ukraine would not regain its former status as a Russian colony.
Today, Trump’s policies confirm this pattern—he is willing to dismantle the balance of power upon which the entire international security system rests.
🔹 What Are the Risks?
Trump does not realize that withdrawing from defense treaties will create a geopolitical vacuum that will quickly be filled by U.S. rivals—primarily China and Russia.
📌 The U.S. and Japan plan to update the treaty in 2024 to counterbalance China.
📌 However, Washington’s uncertainty could undermine allies' trust and push them to seek alternative security arrangements.
📌 Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has already stated that he is not concerned about Trump’s words but emphasized Japan’s vital contribution to the U.S. global strategy.
Meanwhile, Trump continues to dismantle the legacy of American diplomacy, transforming the U.S. from a global leader into an isolated player operating without a long-term strategy.
Trump and Japan: The Symptoms of Failed Leadership
Trump’s recent criticism of Japan is not just another outburst of his sharp rhetoric. It is symptomatic when viewed through the lens of Giovanni Arrighi’s hypothesis, outlined in his book "The Long Twentieth Century" (1994). According to his theory of systemic cycles of accumulation, Japan was supposed to become the next global economic center after the U.S.
But that never happened. Moreover, the U.S. took significant steps to limit Japan’s economic growth.
🔹 In 1985, the Plaza Accord forced Japan to strengthen the yen significantly, undermining its exports.
🔹 In the 1990s, the Japanese economy entered the so-called "lost decade", triggered by a financial crisis and tight monetary policies.
🔹 The U.S. continuously pressured Japan on trade, technology, and military obligations, preventing it from emerging beyond the status of an economic giant with limited political influence.
Trump continues this tradition of pressure, now under the pretext of unequal military spending within the alliance. His statements that Japan "should pay more" for the U.S. military presence are merely an extension of Washington’s long-term strategy of suppressing potential competitors.
Is history repeating itself? Or is the U.S. genuinely afraid of Japan’s resurgence as a global economic leader? 🤔
❓ Are U.S. allies preparing for a world without American protection?