The Claim That Launched a Thousand Headlines

On 23 April 2025, President Donald Trump told reporters that U.S. and Chinese officials were talking “every single day” and were “close to a beautiful deal” that would slash tariffs and calm financial markets.

Beijing’s reply landed less than 24 hours later: “Fake news.” Foreign-ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun insisted that no consultations, let alone agreements, were under way. If the United States really wants talks, he said, it must first drop all unilateral tariffs and abandon its “maximum-pressure theatrics.”

So much for daily negotiations.

“Talk When the Hammers Are Shelved”

China’s Ministry of Commerce echoed the line moments later:

“The United States initiated this tariff war; the United States must dismantle it before equal-footing dialogue can begin.” — He Yadong, MoC spokesperson.

To Beijing, simultaneous talk-and-pressure is the diplomatic equivalent of shouting with a sledgehammer in hand. The prescription is clear: put down the hammer or don’t bother knocking.

Why Beijing Can Afford to Wait

Strategic Cushion Numbers That Matter $3.2 trillion in FX reserves Sub-sidizes critical imports & props up the yuan 125 % retaliatory tariff wall Already prices most U.S. goods out of China > $7 trillion evaporated from Wall Street since February Fuels corporate pressure on the White House 145 % average U.S. tariff on Chinese goods Has not forced Beijing back to the table

Markets wince. China blinks — not yet.

Inside Beijing’s Playbook: “Let the Clock Work”

“Why rush? A short period of pain can pave the way for a smoother, more favorable negotiation.”
— Wu Xinbo, Fudan University

“Today he says tariffs fall, tomorrow he raises them again. How do you trust that?”
— Wang Yiwei, Renmin University

For Chinese policymakers, Trump’s vacillations mean leverage. Each market swing tightens domestic screws on the White House, not Zhongnanhai. Beijing’s best tactic is to do less, wait more, and let American retailers, farmers, and investors lobby for relief.

Four Roads from Here

Scenario What Trump Does Beijing’s Likely Answer Probability

Scenario 1 — Symbolic Tariff Trim (35 %)
• Trump: cuts tariff rates to roughly 50–70 % to calm markets.
• Beijing: welcomes the gesture but insists on a full legal text before moving forward.

Scenario 2 — Re-escalation (30 %)
• Trump: restores the full 145 % tariffs and slaps new sanctions on Huawei & Co.
• Beijing: retaliates with export curbs on rare-earth metals and other pressure points.

Scenario 3 — “Mini-Deal” (20 %)
• Trump: lifts a slice of tariffs in exchange for bigger Chinese purchases of U.S. LNG and farm goods.
• Beijing: signs a broad framework, then drags out the technical details.

Scenario 4 — Stalemate (15 %)
• Trump: freezes tariffs at current levels without new talks.
• Beijing: waits it out while redirecting exports toward the Global South.

Domestic Politics: Trump’s Tariff Boomerang

Trump’s rhetorical U-turn came hours after a closed-door meeting with CEOs of Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and Lowe’s, who warned of inflationary shockwaves and supply-chain chaos. The Financial Times later reported Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent openly doubting unilateral tariff relief — proof that the administration is divided. citeturn0news6

Meanwhile, the hashtag “特朗普怂了” (“Trump chickened out”) amassed 150 million views on Weibo, underscoring how Beijing exploits every wobble for nationalist theatre.

The Global Stakes

• Recession Risk: Big banks now assign a 60 % probability to a U.S. recession if tariffs remain through Q3.
• Supply-Chain Realignment: Vietnam, Mexico, and India are absorbing production lines once bound for American shores — but not fast enough to dodge higher consumer prices.
• Geopolitical Optics: Washington’s credibility suffers when “maximum pressure” produces maximum noise and minimal results. Allies watch; so do Moscow and Tehran.

Conclusion: Clock-Watching as Strategy

Trump still wields the megaphone, but Beijing holds the stopwatch — and every tick deepens the political cost of tariff war for the United States. Until the sledgehammer is shelved, China will keep the door ajar, arms folded, confident that time, not tweets, will deliver leverage.